AI processes can look at things before the production process has started like scripts, actors, et cetera and make a good hypothesis if a movie will be successful from those items,” he says. Phil Contrino, the head of media and research for the National Association of Theater Owners, is skeptical. Would Vault, or Pilot, or Scriptbook, have predicted that? Would Legendary Pictures’ very targeted marketing have given general audiences short shrift, thinking that only hardcore comic book fans would see Iron Man?
is one of the highest-grossing actors of all time. It became a surprise hit, and now Marvel movies blow the competition out of the water annually and Robert Downey, Jr. Ten years ago, a movie about a semi-obscure comic book character starring an actor not known to be a sure thing was a bit of a gamble. It's worth remembering that Infinity War itself is the result of one of those unlikely victories. Obviously studios want to make the biggest profit possible on their blockbusters, but while it's clear movies like Infinity War will do big business, what about the unlikely successes? As of yet, this information hasn’t been used during the creative process to optimize a movie to cater to the largest possible audience-but it likely will be, very soon.Īll this talk of AI, analytics, deep learning, and big data, of course, leaves out one major component of the movie-making process: creativity.
Instead they’re about optimizing the success of projects already in development, using analytics to decide when and how to release teasers and trailers, and determining how to customize impressions for different potential audiences, even scoring potential moviegoers in terms of their likelihood of attending a specific film. Unlike what is happening at startups outside Hollywood, Legendary’s methods aren’t about predicting the potential success of a movie before it’s made. Whether or not algorithms are better at picking winners than studio execs, however, is another matter-one that’s still far from resolved. In fact, several companies are already working on algorithmic ways to predict box office results. These days, Amazon can practically anticipate when you might need toilet paper and Netflix can predict your next binge, so it only seems natural that Hollywood will start using AI to predict the next big blockbuster, or at least improve its chances of becoming one. Machine learning is everywhere, and artificial intelligence is no longer just a Spielberg-Kubrick collaboration. So while the Mouse House knew they had a potentially earth-shattering hit on their hands well before opening night, other studios trying to catch up have no way of predicting whether their latest attempts to hit big will do so.Īctually, they might. But not every summer-or spring, or fall-blockbuster has the benefit of 10 years and 18 movies of built-up audience goodwill. Like, for example, Avengers: Infinity War, which made a record-breaking $258 million at the domestic box office last weekend, filling seats and the pockets of Marvel Studios parent company Disney.